“Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine at the beginning of next year” – MilitaryTimes
“U.S. officials said they could not confirm reports that U.S. intelligence indicated Russia planned to invade on Wednesday” – International Business Times
“We cannot perfectly predict the day, but we have now been saying for some time that we are in the window, and an invasion could begin — a major military action could begin — by Russia in Ukraine any day now.” – CNN Transcript
“We are going to make sure that we are laying out for the world what we see as transparently and plainly as we possibly can” – ABC News
Four times. At least four times the mainstream media has given some semblance of a date when a Russian invasion of Ukraine would occur. The first started way back in November of last year predicting that the Russians would come knocking around new year. Another on Christmas Eve! Now talks of occurring on Wednesday and talk of occurring “any day now.” No wonder the Ukrainian government is frustrated, especially when the US government fails to provide evidence for their claims.
It would not be fair to exclusively blame the Biden administration for confusing messaging. Very recently, President Zelensky of Ukraine made a public speech on live television stating that “we are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack. We will make it the Day of Unity…” Yet an hour later or so, his own aides came out to say that this was “said with irony.” There is reasonable cause to misbelieve it, however, the President has a history of being a comedian. Perhaps this was one of those situations where he could not help himself.
Confusion and incompetence. Not only is there trouble with messaging “transparently and plainly,” the Biden administration is also showing that it has learned nothing from the disastrous withdrawal of Afghanistan. Once again the United States is being criticized over its handling of an evacuation. The Ukrainian government believes it is unnecessary and only helps feed panic. The United States closed its embassy in the capital city of Kyiv and relocated its resources and staff to a new, temporary office in Lviv, a city closer to neighboring Poland, away from the frontiers of war.
It begs the question of how the Biden administration is coordinating with our allies. Like in Afghanistan, the American evacuation has encouraged other nations like Israel and the United Kingdoms to follow in its steps. Military support seems to hang on the European nations, with American troops stationed in Poland and Germany refusing to send further aid.
How far is the Biden administration willing to go to ensure Ukraine’s independence? Probably not far enough and at the expense of everyone else but the Americans. President Biden has also said that there will be no American nor NATO troops involved in Ukraine should Russia invade. Instead, the Biden administration would likely resort to using financial sanctions that would hurt European nations just as much as Russia. One of mentioned sanctions would include the shutting of the natural gas pipeline Nord Stream 2, however, this is not in the hands of the United States, but Germany’s. Whether German leadership would agree to do this is uncertain as the dependency on the pipeline is great. Germans are already dealing with a surge in energy prices, so a shutting of an essential pipeline will not help alleviate anything.
But what does Russian President Putin want? A former intelligence officer, he has a carefully-planned surgical way of taking foreign soil all the while avoiding direct Russian involvement. Despite the massive Russian presence at the Ukrainian border, Putin indicated that he wants to continue talks. The initial demands of the Russian government mainly consisted of a guarantee that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO and that NATO would reduce military presence in Eastern Europe to ease tensions. Putin is likely trying to achieve two things: one, testing the resolve of the Biden administration, how far are they willing to go for their allies? Afghanistan left a bitter taste for everyone involved and a second American betrayal could nail the coffin in American reliability. Putin is also looking for political concessions. The world knows Biden is weak with little political accomplishments in his first year as president. If the next president is stronger, Putin might be deterred from acting boldly. However, with Biden, Putin is likely looking to score at least one foreign policy victory against the United States, likely in the form of forcing them to reduce or eliminate existing arm treaties or subsidies for its Eastern European allies, making them more susceptible to Russian influences. This would be similar to what occurred during and after the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Whatever comes next, both superpowers are sure to spin it as a victory for their favorite media to parrot to their audience. Whether we believe it is a different matter.